How did “The Roto Royal” come to be?

It’s been a while since I’ve regularly written about baseball. The last time I wrote about baseball was in 2012 when I ran the blog “Optioned to Fresno,” a blog on the San Francisco Giants farm system and prospects. That being said, I also wrote about the San Francisco Giants religiously on my first major blog, Remember ’51 and on Bleacher Report, during it’s early days when they relied on the free labor of starry-eyed journalism majors and journalism graduates who were looking for exposure.

Other than Euroleague Jam ( A European Basketball blog), my San Francisco Giants blogs were the most substantial writing projects I ever maintained. Plus, they were projects I poured immensely into, spending many summer days and nights not only watching the Giants on the tube but also writing about them on Blogger, which I’m not even sure exists anymore as a blogging platform. From 2009-2012, I knew the San Francisco Giants inside and out, from their major starts at the Major League level like Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval to even the most anonymous players in the Arizona Rookie League who were in Scottsdale for Extended Spring Training. For that three-year period, I loved no team like the Giants and loved writing about professional baseball more than any other sport.

However, after a move to Kansas City, my following and love for Giants and baseball declined. Part of it was due to proximity and friend group. Not only was I far away from California, but in my move to Kansas City, I surrounded myself with people who didn’t care about baseball. Even when I lived and worked in South Dakota for two years, my main friend group consisted of baseball nerds. We all had our fan allegiances and various relationships with the sport of baseball: one was a Jesuit priest who loved the Milwaukee Brewers; another was a die-hard Rockies fan who played stratomatic on his computer; another was a Phillies Fan who ran his own fan section, creating fan groups that were puns on famous players (Jose Mesa’s “Tables” was his favorite). During our fantasy baseball draft, we held in the basement of the high school in the computer lab so we could simulate a draft “war room” like you would see from MLB teams during their respective Amateur Drafts.

Yes, we were fucking baseball nerds. But it satiated my passion and writing for baseball. Unfortunately, while I was able to keep my membership in my fantasy baseball league with the glorious invention of Yahoo! and the internet. However, when I moved to Kansas City, my baseball attention faded, which was surprising because one of the reasons that stoked me about moving to Kansas City was the fact that I would have regular access to Major League baseball through the Royals whether through live games, television or radio. I figured I would become more into baseball, and really get into the Royals, whom I always had a soft spot for as a youth. (I actually owned a KC Royals hat and played with the regularly in Dynasty mode in MVP Baseball 2004; This was perhaps due to their perennial underdog status; much like the Korean Royals Fan!) I figured tickets would be easy to get because they were mediocre, and I would suddenly get into the Royals like I did with the Giants from 2009-2012.

But lo and behold, that did not happen.

As I moved into Kansas City, I got more into basketball, and I began writing and watching more NBA and college hoops, and thus baseball writing went out the window. No more Giants. No more Royals. No more prospect write-ups. No more anxious, inning-by-inning live diaries of crucial playoff games. Despite my close proximity to Kauffman Stadium, I was unable to keep the momentum I developed while writing on the Giants during that three-year period.

It’s been about six years since I’ve written about baseball, but I’ve suddenly gotten the urge to do so again. There were a couple of reasons for this sudden itch.


First, I felt burned out when it came to writing about basketball. As much as I loved blogging on Euroleague and everything in between, I just felt like I couldn’t offer any different perspectives than what was already out there. Euroleague Adventures and Courtside Diaries do a great job covering the European scene, and as we all know, the NBA Blog scene is like no other out there. With the Ringer and NBA Twitter, it’s just hard to find a place as an aspiring blogger, especially when you come relatively late to the game, and don’t have an NBA team to follow nearby.

Second, I just found myself not having the time to write about basketball in a timely manner. As a high school teacher and basketball coach, there’s just not a time in my schedule to write consistently on basketball. By the time I can, the season is over, and the only things I can write on is either free agency, the NBA draft, summer league, and other stupid bullshit that has nothing to do with actual basketball on the floor. While I enjoyed sharing my thoughts on such topics, it didn’t feel right. I wanted to write about a sport in-season, and that was just never going to happen with basketball. So despite a 2-3 year process to really make my way as a basketball blogger, I found the approach futile, and I decided that while I still love the game, I needed to leave the basketball blogging to those who had more time and expertise to do so.

Another thing happened as I began to ponder what to write this late Spring and Summer: I really got into my fantasy baseball team. Since leaving for Kansas City, not only did my baseball writing suffer, but so did my participation in my fantasy league. When I first started playing in the league, I was competing for a fantasy title, making moves, pissing people off with lopsided trades with people who didn’t pay attention nor care about their fantasy team. Since moving to Kansas City, for the first four years, I was a non-participant, active in the draft and maybe the first few weeks before my team went the way of the dodo (as did my 20 bucks).

This year was an exception. I began paying attention to my team on my smartphone via the Yahoo Sports app. I began researching Fangraphs again. I began reading fantasy and general baseball blogs. I added like 8 teams to my MLB At-Bat app to follow. Now suddenly, I am back as a contender in my fantasy baseball league, not only making my 20 bucks worth it for once, but also rekindling my passion for baseball that had been dormant for almost four years.

And it swooned on me: I needed to write on baseball again.


This time, I wanted to focus on two things: 1.) Fantasy Baseball and 2.) the Kansas City Royals. And that’s where “The Roto Royal” came in.

I wanted to write about fantasy baseball from a fan perspective, from the viewpoint of someone who obsesses over their league and players, both on their roster and on the free agent list. We see fantasy football blogs, sites, etc. all the time. People love talking about fantasy football. But fantasy baseball? Not so much. In fact, most fantasy baseball people are just playing it as a side game until fantasy football starts. I don’t give a shit about fantasy football. I wanted to write about fantasy baseball solely, and I figured my perspective as a fan who is active in his league and also has an affinity for sabermetrics would help me in my posts here on this blog.

That being said, I didn’t want this blog to be solely about fantasy. I have done that before, and the results usually were futile. Without a specific team to focus on, my attention and focus would wane. My writing always did best when I focused on one specific niche. My best writing came from focusing on the Giants. So…what about focusing on the Royals? My local MLB team? And doing so not just from a fanboy perspective, but from a “fantasy baseball” fan perspective?

I thought about going back and doing a Giants one. But, to be honest, I probably follow the Royals more than I do the Giants these days. I blame my first year in KC when in 2013 they actually showed signs of being competitive and legitimate (which paved the way for World Series appearances the next two years). Yes, I didn’t follow baseball as passionately as I did during the 2009-2012 Giants run. However, when I did follow baseball, it was the Royals. Much like most of the KC Metro, I got caught up in Royals fever: watching playoff games late on a weeknight in Midtown bars;  feeling turmoil and at-odds during the 2014 Giants-Royals World Series (because I truly liked both teams);  at-ease when the Royals finally got their much deserved World Series title. I was there at the parade that flooded Union Station and Liberty Memorial (and canceled school/work for me that day), and I became a regular tailgater at Kauffman, enjoying Miller Lite, cornhole and LC’s BBQ before entering to watch nine innings of America’s pastime.

Maybe I didn’t grow up a Royals fan. But for the past few years, I probably followed, watched and knew more about the Royals than the Giants. Yes, the Giants were in my blood, but the Royals had suddenly taken over my fandom as I became more entrenched in Kansas City as a resident.

So, it made sense to combine these two passions: Royals baseball from a fantasy baseball fan’s perspective. This blog will try to hit those two things: most of the time it will be about the Royals, and profile the pros and cons of what has been a rough season. But, it will also be flexible enough to cover other fantasy baseball topics outside the Royals. After all, a successful fantasy team requires a fan to go beyond his or her favorite team.


The Roto Royal will be about analytics and stats. The Roto Royal will be about a fan trying to understand where he stands in the Royals fandom universe. The Roto Royal will be about trying to find the diamonds in the rough in the Royals organization that could emerge down the line and give fans hope. And the Roto Royal will try to give advice and perspective to fantasy baseball players who are looking for other perspectives and viewpoints on players.

But more importantly, the Roto Royal is about baseball. Baseball blogging.

I’m back at it after nearly five years. It feels good to be writing about baseball again, even if it is about the blue and white of Kansas City rather than black and orange of San Francisco.

(At least it’s not the blue and white of Los Angeles, right?)

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Who is Seuly Matias? (And is he legit?)

There hasn’t been much to cheer or be hopeful about this season for the Royals. They currently are trying to avoid the worst record in baseball, they can’t score runs for the life of them, and their farm system is currently in rebuilding mode (hence the Kelvin Herrera trade). Yes, the Royals are a small market franchise, and winning a World Series title three seasons ago should be enough to satiate the local fanbase for a least another few years. But in this day and age of “what have you done for me lately?” in sports, the Royals need to bring something to the table to help salvage not only this season somewhat, but also in the years to come as they go begin rebuilding their system both at the minor and major league level.

Seuly Matias may be that player that can get Royals fans (and potential fantasy owners) pumped again (or at least a little bit pumped).

Now, by no means is Matias the kind of blue-chip prospect that Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon or even Mike Moustakas was less than a decade ago. However, he is a heralded prospect who without a doubt is the crown jewel of the Royals system currently. According to Baseball Prospectus, he was ranked as the #75th Best Prospect going into 2018, and in Fangraphs’ updated Top 131 prospect list (as of June 11th), Matias ranks 88th overall (he’s the only prospect listed from Kansas City).

Matias has burst onto the national scene as of late for one reason: dingers. Matias, who currently plays for the Lexington Legends (the Royals’ Single-A affiliate), leads not only the South Atlantic League but the minor leagues overall, with 24 home runs through June 26th.  In the video below (courtesy of Royals Review’s weekly post on the minor leagues), the Legends coaching staff is pretty impressed with Matias’ display of not just power, but hitting ability for his age (he’s only 19 years old).

Matias is playing his first full season outside of Rookie ball this year and is a long way away from breaking into the Major Leagues. That being said, while he can’t even buy a drink in a bar yet,  he seems like he possesses the purest power out of anyone in the Royals system from top to bottom. Furthermore, at 6’3, 200 pounds, Matias has the frame and strength to be a solid power-hitting outfielder as he transitions through the Royals system over the next few seasons.

However, though the power may be “Trout-esque”, his other skills are far from that comparison. As you will see in the scouting video below from a series against the Rome Braves (Atlanta’s Sally affiliate), his plate discipline needs a lot of work. He is over-aggressive and he swings at a lot of pitches out of the zone, which either results in a lot of swings and misses or bad contact that results in easy outs. That poor plate approach is evident this year in his low batting average (.238 average) as well as high strikeout rate (37.1 percent) and low BB/K ratio (0.21). To make matters worse, these trends were also common during his tenure in the Rookie Leagues the past couple of seasons, as his strikeout rates hovered around the 30 percent mark at each level, and he has never hit higher than .250 in his short career thus far.

At his age, while these numbers are a bit alarming, they’re not damning. When it comes to evaluating prospects, it’s always important to see if a player has one Major League-level “skill” and Matias has that in his power as well as arm, which also was rated a 70 on a 20-80 scale, according to Fangraphs. To have two highly-rated skills from Matias is promising, and if he can become even a “mediocre” hitter for average that can hit annually in the .240 to .260 range, he could be a valuable producer for the Royals lineup in the future, especially if he can transition that 30-40 home run power to the Major League level. Of course, that’s always easier said than done. Plenty of prospects have displayed Matias’ skill set before in the minors (especially lower levels), only to flame out as they face better pitching up the Minor League ladder. So, it’ll be interesting to see if Matias’ approach will improve as he matures as a player.

For fantasy players looking to get a head start on future keepers, Matias may be a valuable pickup…but probably not for another two-three years, minimum. He’s still only 19 years old, and the Sally is still too low a level for potential fantasy owners to make a solid judgment and projection on his future ability at the Major League level. Furthermore, Matias’ home run power hasn’t exploded until this year so it may be prudent to see if he can produce something similar in either High-A or Double-A first.

Matias has a long ways to go. But for a Royals system that’s dearth of top-end prospects, and for fantasy owners who are looking for a breakout player who could provide them pop for years to come, Matias certainly is an enticing and exciting prospect.

But let’s take his success with a grain of salt. He’s still just a teenager in Single-A, and he has a long way to go before he makes it to the show.

Should I give up on the Blue Jays’ Justin Smoak?

Justin Smoak is the epitome of a late-blooming prospect. After mashing in 2009 in Double-A in the Texas Rangers system, and coming out highly heralded out of the University of South Carolina (he was drafted 11th overall by the Rangers), Smoak was identified as the next “big-bopping” first base prospect by most major publications and scouts. However, despite the acclaim nearly a decade earlier, Smoak wasn’t able to transition his “blue chip” prospect status into Major League production early on in his career.

The main piece for the Seattle Mariners in the Cliff Lee trade in 2010, Smoak floundered spectacularly in the Pacific Northwest. In 1,943 plate appearances and five seasons with the Mariners, Smoak only hit 66 home runs and averaged a slash of .226/.308/.384 with a .692 OPS overall. The disappointing production, as well as the Mariners’ own team frustrations and change in management, led to Smoak being waived in 2014, a far fall from grace for a player many thought of as another Mark Teixeira or Chipper Jones when he was drafted in 2008.

However, after being claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays on waivers, Smoak suddenly found the power north of the border that had been dormant in Seattle. He hit 18 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his first season in Toronto, and in 2017, at age 30, Smoak had a career season and became an All-Star player, hitting 38 home runs, 90 RBI, and posting a slash of .270/.355/.529 with an OPS of .883. Suddenly, it appeared that Smoak had not only found a home in Toronto but also could be in the discussion as a top-tier first-basemen in fantasy leagues everywhere going into 2018.

Unfortunately, this season has been closer to what he’s done in Seattle (or his mediocre 2016 season in Toronto) than the magical 2017 campaign.  He’s only hit 9 home runs so far in 299 plate appearances, and his .236/.361/.423 slash and .784 OPS would look good if he was a prolific base-stealing leadoff man, not a first baseman expected to be a major producer in the top half of the lineup. And lastly, after being ranked 90th in Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, Smoak currently ranks 309th overall in leagues, not a great place to be in mixed-leagues when it comes to the first-base position.

So, is Smoak worth keeping? Well, in order to do that, Smoak’s fantasy owners have to look at alternatives on the market, which is probably the only route to go now, since Smoak won’t fetch much of anything in a trade. Using my league as an example (we are a 12-team mixed), I will take a look at seven 1B-eligible candidates who may be worth replacing Smoak.

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  1. Matt Olson, Athletics (110 ranking; 80% owned)
  2. Derek Dietrich, Marlins (132 ranking; 46% owned)
  3. Ian Desmond, Rockies (167 ranking; 74% owned)
  4. Daniel Descalso, Diamondbacks (195 ranking; 30% owned)
  5. Yonder Alonso, Indians (200 ranking, 33% owned)
  6. Yuli Gurriel, Astros (245 ranking, 42% owned)
  7. Ryon Healy, Mariners (269 ranking, 43% owned)

As you can see, all seven rank better than Smoak, so one may be tempted to grab any of the seven as a replacement and think you’re better off. However, if you look deeper at the numbers, some are more skeptical options in comparison to Smoak.

First off, the last three (Alonso, Gurriel, and Healy), despite better rankings than Smoak currently, are probably not likely to finish the year better than Smoak. Smoak’s OPS (.784 OPS) is better than all three (Alonso .776; Gurriel .760; Healy .768), mostly due to Smoak’s much better plate discipline and approach. Furthermore, while Alonso and Healy have more home runs currently, Alonso is going through a similar off-year slump like Smoak (Alonso had 28 home runs last year), and Healy’s plate approach and lack of walks (.292 OBP) makes him a risky pickup, especially if the power tails off in the second half. As for Gurriel, he hits for high average (.306), but his concerning lack of power (4 home runs) doesn’t make him valuable as a starting first-baseman (especially considering that’s the only position he qualifies for).

Desmond is a risky move who has some flexibility (he can also play outfield). He hits homers (15 this year; thanks to Coors), drives in runs (42 RBI) and can get steals (he has 7 so far this year), but a .213 average and .718 OPS is hard to stomach. A lot of his value as a pickup stems on his projected ability in the second half, as many projections expect him to bounce back average-wise come July (he hit .274 last year). So if you are going to go the Desmond route, you might want to make sure your lineup has a lot of high average hitters to protect your weekly average.

Dietrich and Descalso are interesting pickups if you want utility guys who can play multiple positions. Dietrich qualifies as a 2B, 3B, and OF in addition to 1B, and he is hitting .302 for the year with a .850 OPS and 11 home runs. Dietrich has been especially on a tear in June, as he is hitting .389 with a 1.107 OPS and 6 homers in the past 30 days. Descalso provides the same position versatility as the Marlins’ Dietrich, though he isn’t as productive as the Marlins utility man (Descalso is hitting only .266 with a .865 OPS and 6 home runs). However, most owners will have a better shot at picking up Descalso than Dietrich in most leagues, so he is a nice consolation prize for owners who can’t nab Dietrich, but want his combination of flexibility and production.

The biggest debate I’m sure owners may have will be choosing between Smoak or Olson. Olson in a lot of ways is a younger version of Smoak. He doesn’t hit for high average (he’s only hitting .246 and he hit only .259 last year) and he strikes out a lot (27.1 percent K rate). That being said, he has maintained the power for the most part from last year (17 homers this year; .224 ISO), though it’s not as pronounced as it was during his first extended playing stint at the Major League level last season (24 homers; .392 ISO in 101 fewer appearances).

You can do a whole lot worse than Olson if you are dead set on replacing Smoak. At the very least, Olson has some keeper value, as he is only 24 years old; they both have the same kind of skill set (low average, relatively high walk and strikeout rates); and his power seems legitimate (which it has to be in a pitcher-friendly ballpark like the Oakland Coliseum), which means that he may be able to maintain this first half production in the second half. I think Smoak and Olson will have similar second halves, and that’s why I don’t think Olson for Smoak is a no-brainer. But, I know owners may be less patient or feel the pressure to pick up in leagues after slow starts. Hence, if you’re in a position where you have to make a move on Smoak, Olson has been more proven in 2018, and maybe a bit safer based on his better first half.

Overall, Dietrich, Descalso, and Olson would be preferable pickups to replace Smoak. However, if neither of those three is available, you’re probably better off keeping the Smoak monster, as Alonso, Gurriel, Desmond, and Healy aren’t likely to be much better than Smoak (hell, they may be worse) in the second half of the season.

It’s definitely a tough decision. Smoak is replaceable, sure. But be discerning, and don’t automatically drop him. The plate approach is there. Now he just needs some of those hits (and dingers) to fall.