Is the Reds’ Billy Hamilton Finally Figuring It Out?

Only seven players in the Majors have over 20 stolen bases thus far as the first half of the Major League Season comes to a close (as of July 14th). Right in the mix is Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds, who is tied for the fourth-most stolen bases in Major League baseball with 22, along with the Washington Nationals’ Trea Turner and the Seattle Mariners’ Dee Gordon (who led the Majors last season in stolen bases with 60 with the Miami Marlins). Hamilton, who finished with 59 stolen bases, second-most in the Major Leagues, a year ago, trails only Ender Inciarte of the Atlanta Braves (23), as well as the Washington Nationals’ Michael Taylor, and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Starling Marte, who both have 24.

Despite him being in the mix as the league’s stolen base king in 2018, it has been an inconsistent year for the Reds’ speedy outfielder. Projected to take a step forward as a player this year (Yahoo! projected his overall ranking at 59 going into the season), Hamilton got off to a painful start. In his first 26 games and 100 plate appearances to begin the year in March and April, Hamilton hit only .172, with only four total extra-base hits, and he struck out a whopping 33 times. While there were some promising signs (he walked 13 times and he stole five bases in five attempts), it was safe to say that Hamilton, much like the Reds team as a whole, had failed to live up to expectations to start off 2018.

After a slow beginning to the year as a whole organization, the Reds fired manager Bryan Price after a 3-15 start to the year, and a 279-387 record overall (the Reds never had a winning record under Price since he took over in 2014). Furthermore, Reds GM Nick Krall promoted Jim Riggleman, who formerly managed the Washington Nationals. Under Riggleman, the Reds have turned it around, as they are 39-37 under him as of July 14th, and rate as one of the best offensive teams in baseball, as they rank 7th in the Majors in team WAR, a stark difference from their 42-52 record and 5th place standing currently in the NL Central (though to be frank, the Central may be the best division in the National League).

Hamilton has also turned it around after the managerial change, though it may not look like it at first when you see his .233 average and .636 OPS to go along with only three home runs, 19 RBI, and 51 runs scored. If you judge him over the past month though, there hasn’t been a more dynamic player in the Majors than Hamilton. In the last 30 days, Hamilton not only leads the league in stolen bases (17), but he is also hitting .337 with a .825 OPS to go along with a home run, 5 RBI and 20 runs scored in 83 AB. Furthermore, the 27-year-old outfielder has also made a habit of making spectacular plays like the one below against the Cardinals on July 13th.

So what has been the cause of Hamilton’s turnaround? And can he sustain this offensive onslaught in the second half? Or is he due to regress, and be the low average, low OPS fantasy option that has frustrated fantasy owners over the past few years?

Here are a couple of reasons for optimism:

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Riggleman batting Hamilton 9th

It’s very tempting for managers to look at a guy of Hamilton’s speed and think automatically “leadoff” hitter. So far this year, Hamilton never really took to the role, as he only hit .167 with a .546 OPS and BB/K ratio of 0.29 in 12 games and 41 plate appearances in the leadoff spot this year. Since Price was fired though, Riggleman made the decision to bat him 9th (meaning the pitcher would bat in front of him), a strategy fellow NL Central managers such as the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle and Cubs’ Joe Maddon have employed with their teams. The move has paid off somewhat, as Hamilton is batting .244 with a .651 OPS and a BB/K ratio of 0.42 in 72 games and 274 plate appearances in the bottom of the order. Getting to see a pitcher go through eight hitters beforehand, and being relieved of having to “jump start” the offense from the leadoff spot has seemed to have a positive effect on Hamilton, and Riggleman’s unorthodox strategy has paid off for the Reds’ offense (and Hamilton personally) thus far.

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Hamilton is developing his eye at the plate

Hamilton’s walk rate this year is 10.2 percent, which is 3.2 percent higher than last season and would be the highest walk rate of his career if the season ended today. Some might say “he’s more patient” at the plate, but that probably would be misleading. Hamilton’s swing percentage of 46.8 percent his highest percentage since his call-up in 2013 (where it was 50 percent), and his contact rate (77 percent) is lower while his swinging strike percentage (10.7 percent) is higher as well. That being said, he has swung at fewer pitches out of the strike zone (29.5 compared to 29.9 percent) compared to last year, and he is knowing what counts are his strong suit. He is batting .450 when swinging on the first pitch, and .350 when the count even, showing that he is taking advantage of opportunities when he is aggressive, and laying off when counts are not in his favor (as evidenced by the higher walk rate). It has resulted in an increase in strikeouts (25.7 percent), but it’s obvious that Hamilton has honed is hitting a bit as he has matured as a Major League player.

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He’s hitting the ball harder

The negative of Hamilton’s approach? The strikeouts. The positive? Walks and getting on base. Both we have talked about in the previous section. However, another positive byproduct of Hamilton’s refined approach at the plate is that he’s hitting the ball harder than ever before.

If you check out batted ball information via Fangraphs, his line drive percentage sits at 25.8 percent and his fly ball percentage sits at 34.8 percent, both major increases from the previous two years. Furthermore, his groundball percentage is at 39.4 percent, the lowest of his Major League career thus far. And though his medium hit percentage is down to 50 percent (from 59 percent in previous years), his hard-hit ball percentage is 23.8 percent, a career high and nearly a seven percent increase from last year, thus resulting in an HR/FB ratio of 4.3 percent, another career high.

Hamilton is not going to confuse people with Mike Trout anytime soon. But he is hitting the ball harder at the plate in 2018, and that should be promising enough for fantasy owners who are skeptical of his latest hot streak.

What’s the verdict on Hamilton?

A lot of fantasy owners have been patient on Hamilton, as evidenced by him being owned in 77 percent of Yahoo! leagues. However, it finally looks like Hamilton is starting to make owners’ patience a wise decision. He’s hitting the ball harder, he’s getting on base more, and more importantly, he’s stealing bases at his usual, high-end clip. And he’s been more judicious on the basepaths, as he is getting caught less, as his 84 percent success rate is an improvement from his 81 percent rate a season ago.

ZiPS projects Hamilton to steal 22 more stolen bases for the remainder of the year, but it’s plausible that Hamilton may touch the 50 or more mark by the end of this season as well, as long as he stays healthy. He has improved under Riggleman, and Riggleman’s openness to let him run wild on the basepaths, and bat him in the order in an unconventional way has done wonders for Hamilton in terms of bouncing back after a slow start. It’s hard to imagine Hamilton benefitting fantasy teams beyond stolen bases in a major way for the remainder of the year (and perhaps in the future as well). That being said, Hamilton’s speed and stolen base ability are so good and rare that it may not matter as long as fantasy owners have the right combination of power and high-average hitting elsewhere in their lineup to make up for Hamilton’s deficiencies.

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Can the Royals’ youngsters spark this lackluster offense?

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Hunter Dozier (left) and Jorge Bonifacio are two Royals players who can help the offense in the second half.

June was a rough month for the Royals, and that’s putting it lightly. After a respectable May, where they went 13-15, the Royals nosedived the next month, going 5-21 and getting outscored 136-58 during the 26-game span. Yes, you read that right: the Royals only managed a measly 58 runs for the ENTIRE MONTH.

The putrid month warranted a piece from Fangraphs from Jeff Sullivan on July 3rd, who analyzed the Royals’ historically bad offensive month. Sullivan had this to say about the Royals’ lack of production over the last 30 days:

The Royals are in last, having managed a team wRC+ of 48. To be more precise, 47.6. The nearest team is the Tigers, with a wRC+ of 72. Over this span, the Royals are the only team to have batted under .200. They’re the only team with an OBP under .250, and they’re the only team with a slugging percentage under .300, and so they’re the only team with an OPS under .550. The Royals have been caught in an offensive tailspin, and the only thing that’s allowed them to avoid too much attention is the fact they were expected to be bad in the first place

I don’t think there’s much I can say that Sullivan has not said already about the Royals’ offense, so if you want to read about it more (because you’re a masochistic SOB), check out Sullivan’s piece, especially worthwhile thanks to the data graph he provides of team hitting wRC+ for all 30 teams (surprisingly, Cincinnati ranks third; goes to show how bad their pitching has been). That being said, as an optimistic Royals fan, I would like to think that Royals can’t possibly duplicate their horrid numbers for the rest of the year (though fingers crossed; this year has been bad enough). But let’s face it: the Royals are not going to turn it around in the second half without some change in the lineup.

With a 25-60 record as of July 4th, the Royals have already begun the rebuilding process thanks to some trades last month (Jon Jay to the Diamondbacks and Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals), resulting in some of the younger Royals’ younger players cracking the lineup. However, with the trade deadline looming on July 31st, it’s only a matter of time before some veterans are traded for assets (Mike Moustakas and Whit Merrifield are prime candidates), meaning the youth movement in the Kansas City will most likely be in full force by August.

So, which Royals younger players can have an impact on this club during these last few months? Which ones can help make the Royals’ offense respectable again?

Let’s take a look at youngsters on the Royals’ 40-man roster who are likely to make an impact, and which ones may leave some left to be desired during the second half of the Major League season.

Don’t expect all that much

Abraham Almonte, OF; Ramon Torres, 2B/SS; Bubba Starling, OF

Almonte is nearly 30 and hasn’t really done all that much at the Major League level, as he is posting an awful slash of .186/.264/.295 in 47 games and 145 plate appearances this year. Considering his age and his lackluster production at the Major League level, Almonte is most likely a “Four-A” player at best who’s probably too good for Triple-A, but not good enough for the Majors.

Torres is a bit younger at 25 years old, and has the versatility to play second and short (much needed should the Royals bite the bullet and designate Alcides Escobar for assignment so Ned Yost can’t play him; I think Dayton Moore’s loyalty will get in the way of this happening), but in 42 career games and 108 plate appearances, Torres hasn’t provided much with the bat as evidenced by a career .229/.269/.265 slash and 43 wRC+. Even in Triple-A, Torres isn’t showing much promise in Omaha, with a slash of only .226/.281/.332 and a .613 OPS in 53 games and 208 AB this season in the PCL.

As for Starling, the former Gardner, Kansas high school sports star and bonus baby has failed to resemble a Major League player at any point in the Minors since he was drafted and received the largest draft signing bonus in team history in 2011 (it was $7.5 million). The best campaign he had was in 2015 in Double-A in Northwest Arkansas where in 366 plate appearances he hit 10 home runs and posted a slash of .254/.318/.426 and an OPS of .744 as a 22-year old. That being said, due to the combination of injury and ineffectiveness, Starling really hasn’t built on that campaign nearly three seasons ago. This past season in Omaha, in 303 plate appearances, he hit only .248 with a .685 OPS and only added 7 home runs and 21 RBI. While Starling will get a chance to get some playing time when the roster expands in September (hopefully he will be healthy by then), it is unlikely that former first-round pick will have much impact at the MLB level this season.

Not totally sure…but some upside

Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B; Adalberto Mondesi, 2B/SS; Rosell Herrera, 2B/OF

Cuthbert is a former top prospect who has yet to capitalize on his “prospect hype” at the big league level. His career slash is .252/.303/.378 with a .681 OPS. That’s fine for a middle fielder with good speed and a good glove, perhaps, but not for a corner infielder. His wRC+ this season before he went to the DL with injury this year is 62, barely an upgrade over the 59 he posted a season ago in 153 plate appearances and 58 games at the big league level (he struggled with injuries as well a season ago). I’m not totally giving up on Cuthbert. With Moustakas holding down third, it’s been hard for Cuthbert to get an extended chance when Moose was healthy. He actually did okay when Moose struggled with injuries in 2016, as Cuthbert hit 12 home runs, posted a .731 OPS and a wRC+ of 95 over 510 plate appearances. It’s not great by any means, but it shows that he can be an average hitter in the lineup (when healthy), something the Royals have been sorely missing this year. Should (or perhaps when) Moose gets traded, and when Cuthbert is healthy (he is raking so far on a rehab assignment in Omaha), it’s possible that he may be able to rebound at the plate with regular playing time.

I have already talked about Mondesi before on this blog, who oozes with potential, but still hasn’t realized it at the Major League Level. Mondesi is still young (he’s about to turn 23 in less than a month), but he’s already shown some progress in his Major League call-up this year, which is 42 plate appearances and 13 games. His strikeout rate is down (from 36.7 percent to 25.5 percent) and he is showing more power as well (his .143 ISO is a career high thus far). Granted, his numbers aren’t pretty by any means: 55 wRC+ (actually the highest mark as a Royal thus far) and .214/.233/.357 slash with a .590 OPS. But, he is a middle infielder, he is showing progress and he’s still over three years away from the “plateau” mark for prospects (age 26 is considered the point where prospects are what they are). With Escobar not being much better (37 wRC+), it may be worth it for Yost to see if Mondesi could handle an extended look at SS in the second half (or at least splitting duties with Escobar).

Herrera has always had a soft spot with me as a prospect, as I was a big fan of him when I was covering the Giants and prospects more closely in my Optioned to Fresno days. I wrote a couple of pieces for Seedlings 2 Stars (now called Call to the Pen), including a piece profiling the top Latin American prospects in the NL West back in 2012, which listed Herrera as a top SS prospect in the Rockies system. (It looks bad now, as I said I liked Herrera more than Trevor Story, who is now the Rockies starting SS; can’t win them all I guess). While Herrera hasn’t turned into the stud I foresaw him as during his NL West days, I felt the Royals getting Herrera off waivers was a low-risk, high-reward move. Herrera isn’t killing it at the MLB level, but he’s doing much better in his limited 15 game stint with the Royals than his 11 game-13 plate appearance stint with the Reds (who designated him for assignment). As a Royal, his slash is .271/.279/.407 and his wRC+ is 80 (much better than the -25 mark with the Reds). This is Herrera’s first year playing at the Major League level, so some growing pains are to be expected, but right now Herrera is a nice utility type player who could help the Royals down the stretch, especially if he gets his base-stealing together (he stole 36 bags in Double-A in 2016; he’s 1 for 3 this year with the Royals). His plate discipline still needs major work (only 1 walk in 72 plate appearances at the Major League level), but he could fill the Merrifield role nicely should Merrifield get dealt by the deadline. He’s mostly risk and upside, like Mondesi, but unlike Mondesi, he doesn’t have age on his side (he’s 25). However, he could provide some decent production from multiple positions if given an extended chance in the Big Leagues.

For sure worth giving a look to

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF; Jorge Bonifacio, OF; Jorge Soler, OF

Dozier, the Royals’ 2013 first round pick (and 8th pick overall) is finally getting an extended look thanks to injuries to other players (first to Lucas Duda and now to Soler) and the team currently in “rebuilding” mode. Dozier’s an interesting player because he played shortstop in college and really doesn’t have a “position” yet, but he’s a polished player who flashes a lot of tools and really has nothing left to prove in the minor leagues. The KC Star also recognized that this may be a chance for Dozier to “prove himself” considering the circumstances of this season, as evidenced in this quote from writer Vahe Gregorian:

With the Royals losing routinely, with their more-established players being subject to trade as the franchise seeks to replenish its farm system, Dozier’s audition is one of the more compelling tales to follow this season.

Dozier has certainly got an extended chance, as evidenced by his 156 plate appearances and 43 games played thus far. Unfortunately, the numbers don’t look impressive, as he is only posting a .222/.282/.354 slash with a 73 wRC+ and four home runs and 11 RBI. That being said, Dozier has the size (6’4, 220) and the power potential (graded a 60 for raw power from scouts) to be successful, and he has proven at the minor league level that his power is for real (.238 ISO in Omaha last season). The big question for him will be plate discipline, as his strikeout rate is over 30 percent and hovered around 38 percent in Omaha a season ago. If he can lessen than K’s, up the walks, and turn some of his groundballs (41.2 percent) to line drives and fly balls, then it is possible that Dozier can live up to his first-round pick status as soon as this season at the MLB level.

Bonifacio is a polarizing outfielder in the Royals system. The younger brother of Emilio Bonifacio, and a top prospect in the Royals system just a couple of seasons ago (he rated as the 10th best prospect in the Royals system by Fangraphs as of 2016), Bonifacio looked like he was on his way to being something special, as evidenced by his stint with the big league club where he posted a slash of .255/.320/.432 with 17 home runs, 55 runs scored, an OPS of .752 and a wRC+ of 99 in 113 games and 422 plate appearances last season. In fact, it looked likely that Bonifacio would be a shoe-in for a starting outfield spot out of Spring Training, especially considering Soler’s troubles at the plate in 2017, and Lorenzo Cain leaving in free agency. However, in March during Spring Training, Major League Baseball suspended Bonifacio 80 games for testing positive for PEDs and either he became forgotten by fans or an object of vitriol for trying to “cheat” and “deflower” the game.

However, recently Bonifacio’s suspension finally came to an end, and his presence has been made known early on. While it’s only five games and 18 plate appearances, Bonifacio is posting a slash of .313/.389/.375. In his rehab assignment in Omaha, the Dominican outfielder hit .392 with a .442 wOBA and a 167 wRC+. Considering how lackluster the Royals’ bats have been this summer (especially in June), Bonifacio is a welcome surprise who may be the centerpiece of this Royals offense if/once Merrifield and Moustakas are traded. Granted, it’s a small sample size, and Bonifacio has a long way to go to endear himself to Royals fans after the suspension (if there’s one thing KC sports fans don’t like its players with controversy; though they get over it if the players produce; hence Tyreek Hill of the Chiefs), but Bonifacio getting to a hot start is a good sign for a player who’s looking to build upon a promising campaign in 2017.

Soler is an interesting player because he won’t be back for a while. As of June 15th, doctors said he’d probably be out for at least another six weeks due to a broken foot. At this point, the Royals most likely will only get a month and a half of Soler in the lineup at best. That being said, this is less about Soler’s production now, and more what he means to this Royals roster in the future. A former Cubs top prospect who came over in the Wade Davis trade, Soler shut up his critics somewhat early on in the year with a strong start to 2018 to make up for a disappointing Royals career leading up to this season. In 257 plate appearances, Soler was posting a slash of .265/.354/.466 with a wRC+ of 125 to go along with 9 home runs and 28 RBI. Considering his wRC+ was 32 a year ago, many Royals fans reconsidered the Cuban prospect whom they figured to be a bust at the conclusion of the 2017 season. The nice thing about Soler is he has two years left on his deal after this year, and he comes relatively cheap at $4.667 million per year. While it’s unlikely that Soler will have a major effect on the Royals in the W-L column in 2018, if he can come back from injury and finish the year strong, it could have a beneficial effect not only for him personally going into next year but also the Royals organization as a whole, as the club can depend on him being a starting OF in Kauffman for 2019 and 2020 at the very least.

At 26 years old, and only 307 MLB games under his belt, there is a lot of upside to Soler as an athletic, strong-hitting outfielder (though he does have some lapses on the fielding end). A solid finish on what has been his best MLB season so far would be a nice cap to a surprising and reaffirming season not just for the outfielder, but Royals fans overall who are looking for hope on the offensive end of things for the future. This year showed that Soler has potential to live up to his ballyhooed Cubs prospect hype in the near future in the KC blue and white.

As long as he stays healthy of course.

How did “The Roto Royal” come to be?

It’s been a while since I’ve regularly written about baseball. The last time I wrote about baseball was in 2012 when I ran the blog “Optioned to Fresno,” a blog on the San Francisco Giants farm system and prospects. That being said, I also wrote about the San Francisco Giants religiously on my first major blog, Remember ’51 and on Bleacher Report, during it’s early days when they relied on the free labor of starry-eyed journalism majors and journalism graduates who were looking for exposure.

Other than Euroleague Jam ( A European Basketball blog), my San Francisco Giants blogs were the most substantial writing projects I ever maintained. Plus, they were projects I poured immensely into, spending many summer days and nights not only watching the Giants on the tube but also writing about them on Blogger, which I’m not even sure exists anymore as a blogging platform. From 2009-2012, I knew the San Francisco Giants inside and out, from their major starts at the Major League level like Buster Posey, Tim Lincecum, and Pablo Sandoval to even the most anonymous players in the Arizona Rookie League who were in Scottsdale for Extended Spring Training. For that three-year period, I loved no team like the Giants and loved writing about professional baseball more than any other sport.

However, after a move to Kansas City, my following and love for Giants and baseball declined. Part of it was due to proximity and friend group. Not only was I far away from California, but in my move to Kansas City, I surrounded myself with people who didn’t care about baseball. Even when I lived and worked in South Dakota for two years, my main friend group consisted of baseball nerds. We all had our fan allegiances and various relationships with the sport of baseball: one was a Jesuit priest who loved the Milwaukee Brewers; another was a die-hard Rockies fan who played stratomatic on his computer; another was a Phillies Fan who ran his own fan section, creating fan groups that were puns on famous players (Jose Mesa’s “Tables” was his favorite). During our fantasy baseball draft, we held in the basement of the high school in the computer lab so we could simulate a draft “war room” like you would see from MLB teams during their respective Amateur Drafts.

Yes, we were fucking baseball nerds. But it satiated my passion and writing for baseball. Unfortunately, while I was able to keep my membership in my fantasy baseball league with the glorious invention of Yahoo! and the internet. However, when I moved to Kansas City, my baseball attention faded, which was surprising because one of the reasons that stoked me about moving to Kansas City was the fact that I would have regular access to Major League baseball through the Royals whether through live games, television or radio. I figured I would become more into baseball, and really get into the Royals, whom I always had a soft spot for as a youth. (I actually owned a KC Royals hat and played with the regularly in Dynasty mode in MVP Baseball 2004; This was perhaps due to their perennial underdog status; much like the Korean Royals Fan!) I figured tickets would be easy to get because they were mediocre, and I would suddenly get into the Royals like I did with the Giants from 2009-2012.

But lo and behold, that did not happen.

As I moved into Kansas City, I got more into basketball, and I began writing and watching more NBA and college hoops, and thus baseball writing went out the window. No more Giants. No more Royals. No more prospect write-ups. No more anxious, inning-by-inning live diaries of crucial playoff games. Despite my close proximity to Kauffman Stadium, I was unable to keep the momentum I developed while writing on the Giants during that three-year period.

It’s been about six years since I’ve written about baseball, but I’ve suddenly gotten the urge to do so again. There were a couple of reasons for this sudden itch.


First, I felt burned out when it came to writing about basketball. As much as I loved blogging on Euroleague and everything in between, I just felt like I couldn’t offer any different perspectives than what was already out there. Euroleague Adventures and Courtside Diaries do a great job covering the European scene, and as we all know, the NBA Blog scene is like no other out there. With the Ringer and NBA Twitter, it’s just hard to find a place as an aspiring blogger, especially when you come relatively late to the game, and don’t have an NBA team to follow nearby.

Second, I just found myself not having the time to write about basketball in a timely manner. As a high school teacher and basketball coach, there’s just not a time in my schedule to write consistently on basketball. By the time I can, the season is over, and the only things I can write on is either free agency, the NBA draft, summer league, and other stupid bullshit that has nothing to do with actual basketball on the floor. While I enjoyed sharing my thoughts on such topics, it didn’t feel right. I wanted to write about a sport in-season, and that was just never going to happen with basketball. So despite a 2-3 year process to really make my way as a basketball blogger, I found the approach futile, and I decided that while I still love the game, I needed to leave the basketball blogging to those who had more time and expertise to do so.

Another thing happened as I began to ponder what to write this late Spring and Summer: I really got into my fantasy baseball team. Since leaving for Kansas City, not only did my baseball writing suffer, but so did my participation in my fantasy league. When I first started playing in the league, I was competing for a fantasy title, making moves, pissing people off with lopsided trades with people who didn’t pay attention nor care about their fantasy team. Since moving to Kansas City, for the first four years, I was a non-participant, active in the draft and maybe the first few weeks before my team went the way of the dodo (as did my 20 bucks).

This year was an exception. I began paying attention to my team on my smartphone via the Yahoo Sports app. I began researching Fangraphs again. I began reading fantasy and general baseball blogs. I added like 8 teams to my MLB At-Bat app to follow. Now suddenly, I am back as a contender in my fantasy baseball league, not only making my 20 bucks worth it for once, but also rekindling my passion for baseball that had been dormant for almost four years.

And it swooned on me: I needed to write on baseball again.


This time, I wanted to focus on two things: 1.) Fantasy Baseball and 2.) the Kansas City Royals. And that’s where “The Roto Royal” came in.

I wanted to write about fantasy baseball from a fan perspective, from the viewpoint of someone who obsesses over their league and players, both on their roster and on the free agent list. We see fantasy football blogs, sites, etc. all the time. People love talking about fantasy football. But fantasy baseball? Not so much. In fact, most fantasy baseball people are just playing it as a side game until fantasy football starts. I don’t give a shit about fantasy football. I wanted to write about fantasy baseball solely, and I figured my perspective as a fan who is active in his league and also has an affinity for sabermetrics would help me in my posts here on this blog.

That being said, I didn’t want this blog to be solely about fantasy. I have done that before, and the results usually were futile. Without a specific team to focus on, my attention and focus would wane. My writing always did best when I focused on one specific niche. My best writing came from focusing on the Giants. So…what about focusing on the Royals? My local MLB team? And doing so not just from a fanboy perspective, but from a “fantasy baseball” fan perspective?

I thought about going back and doing a Giants one. But, to be honest, I probably follow the Royals more than I do the Giants these days. I blame my first year in KC when in 2013 they actually showed signs of being competitive and legitimate (which paved the way for World Series appearances the next two years). Yes, I didn’t follow baseball as passionately as I did during the 2009-2012 Giants run. However, when I did follow baseball, it was the Royals. Much like most of the KC Metro, I got caught up in Royals fever: watching playoff games late on a weeknight in Midtown bars;  feeling turmoil and at-odds during the 2014 Giants-Royals World Series (because I truly liked both teams);  at-ease when the Royals finally got their much deserved World Series title. I was there at the parade that flooded Union Station and Liberty Memorial (and canceled school/work for me that day), and I became a regular tailgater at Kauffman, enjoying Miller Lite, cornhole and LC’s BBQ before entering to watch nine innings of America’s pastime.

Maybe I didn’t grow up a Royals fan. But for the past few years, I probably followed, watched and knew more about the Royals than the Giants. Yes, the Giants were in my blood, but the Royals had suddenly taken over my fandom as I became more entrenched in Kansas City as a resident.

So, it made sense to combine these two passions: Royals baseball from a fantasy baseball fan’s perspective. This blog will try to hit those two things: most of the time it will be about the Royals, and profile the pros and cons of what has been a rough season. But, it will also be flexible enough to cover other fantasy baseball topics outside the Royals. After all, a successful fantasy team requires a fan to go beyond his or her favorite team.


The Roto Royal will be about analytics and stats. The Roto Royal will be about a fan trying to understand where he stands in the Royals fandom universe. The Roto Royal will be about trying to find the diamonds in the rough in the Royals organization that could emerge down the line and give fans hope. And the Roto Royal will try to give advice and perspective to fantasy baseball players who are looking for other perspectives and viewpoints on players.

But more importantly, the Roto Royal is about baseball. Baseball blogging.

I’m back at it after nearly five years. It feels good to be writing about baseball again, even if it is about the blue and white of Kansas City rather than black and orange of San Francisco.

(At least it’s not the blue and white of Los Angeles, right?)

Who is Seuly Matias? (And is he legit?)

There hasn’t been much to cheer or be hopeful about this season for the Royals. They currently are trying to avoid the worst record in baseball, they can’t score runs for the life of them, and their farm system is currently in rebuilding mode (hence the Kelvin Herrera trade). Yes, the Royals are a small market franchise, and winning a World Series title three seasons ago should be enough to satiate the local fanbase for a least another few years. But in this day and age of “what have you done for me lately?” in sports, the Royals need to bring something to the table to help salvage not only this season somewhat, but also in the years to come as they go begin rebuilding their system both at the minor and major league level.

Seuly Matias may be that player that can get Royals fans (and potential fantasy owners) pumped again (or at least a little bit pumped).

Now, by no means is Matias the kind of blue-chip prospect that Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon or even Mike Moustakas was less than a decade ago. However, he is a heralded prospect who without a doubt is the crown jewel of the Royals system currently. According to Baseball Prospectus, he was ranked as the #75th Best Prospect going into 2018, and in Fangraphs’ updated Top 131 prospect list (as of June 11th), Matias ranks 88th overall (he’s the only prospect listed from Kansas City).

Matias has burst onto the national scene as of late for one reason: dingers. Matias, who currently plays for the Lexington Legends (the Royals’ Single-A affiliate), leads not only the South Atlantic League but the minor leagues overall, with 24 home runs through June 26th.  In the video below (courtesy of Royals Review’s weekly post on the minor leagues), the Legends coaching staff is pretty impressed with Matias’ display of not just power, but hitting ability for his age (he’s only 19 years old).

Matias is playing his first full season outside of Rookie ball this year and is a long way away from breaking into the Major Leagues. That being said, while he can’t even buy a drink in a bar yet,  he seems like he possesses the purest power out of anyone in the Royals system from top to bottom. Furthermore, at 6’3, 200 pounds, Matias has the frame and strength to be a solid power-hitting outfielder as he transitions through the Royals system over the next few seasons.

However, though the power may be “Trout-esque”, his other skills are far from that comparison. As you will see in the scouting video below from a series against the Rome Braves (Atlanta’s Sally affiliate), his plate discipline needs a lot of work. He is over-aggressive and he swings at a lot of pitches out of the zone, which either results in a lot of swings and misses or bad contact that results in easy outs. That poor plate approach is evident this year in his low batting average (.238 average) as well as high strikeout rate (37.1 percent) and low BB/K ratio (0.21). To make matters worse, these trends were also common during his tenure in the Rookie Leagues the past couple of seasons, as his strikeout rates hovered around the 30 percent mark at each level, and he has never hit higher than .250 in his short career thus far.

At his age, while these numbers are a bit alarming, they’re not damning. When it comes to evaluating prospects, it’s always important to see if a player has one Major League-level “skill” and Matias has that in his power as well as arm, which also was rated a 70 on a 20-80 scale, according to Fangraphs. To have two highly-rated skills from Matias is promising, and if he can become even a “mediocre” hitter for average that can hit annually in the .240 to .260 range, he could be a valuable producer for the Royals lineup in the future, especially if he can transition that 30-40 home run power to the Major League level. Of course, that’s always easier said than done. Plenty of prospects have displayed Matias’ skill set before in the minors (especially lower levels), only to flame out as they face better pitching up the Minor League ladder. So, it’ll be interesting to see if Matias’ approach will improve as he matures as a player.

For fantasy players looking to get a head start on future keepers, Matias may be a valuable pickup…but probably not for another two-three years, minimum. He’s still only 19 years old, and the Sally is still too low a level for potential fantasy owners to make a solid judgment and projection on his future ability at the Major League level. Furthermore, Matias’ home run power hasn’t exploded until this year so it may be prudent to see if he can produce something similar in either High-A or Double-A first.

Matias has a long ways to go. But for a Royals system that’s dearth of top-end prospects, and for fantasy owners who are looking for a breakout player who could provide them pop for years to come, Matias certainly is an enticing and exciting prospect.

But let’s take his success with a grain of salt. He’s still just a teenager in Single-A, and he has a long way to go before he makes it to the show.

Should I give up on the Blue Jays’ Justin Smoak?

Justin Smoak is the epitome of a late-blooming prospect. After mashing in 2009 in Double-A in the Texas Rangers system, and coming out highly heralded out of the University of South Carolina (he was drafted 11th overall by the Rangers), Smoak was identified as the next “big-bopping” first base prospect by most major publications and scouts. However, despite the acclaim nearly a decade earlier, Smoak wasn’t able to transition his “blue chip” prospect status into Major League production early on in his career.

The main piece for the Seattle Mariners in the Cliff Lee trade in 2010, Smoak floundered spectacularly in the Pacific Northwest. In 1,943 plate appearances and five seasons with the Mariners, Smoak only hit 66 home runs and averaged a slash of .226/.308/.384 with a .692 OPS overall. The disappointing production, as well as the Mariners’ own team frustrations and change in management, led to Smoak being waived in 2014, a far fall from grace for a player many thought of as another Mark Teixeira or Chipper Jones when he was drafted in 2008.

However, after being claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays on waivers, Smoak suddenly found the power north of the border that had been dormant in Seattle. He hit 18 home runs in 328 plate appearances in his first season in Toronto, and in 2017, at age 30, Smoak had a career season and became an All-Star player, hitting 38 home runs, 90 RBI, and posting a slash of .270/.355/.529 with an OPS of .883. Suddenly, it appeared that Smoak had not only found a home in Toronto but also could be in the discussion as a top-tier first-basemen in fantasy leagues everywhere going into 2018.

Unfortunately, this season has been closer to what he’s done in Seattle (or his mediocre 2016 season in Toronto) than the magical 2017 campaign.  He’s only hit 9 home runs so far in 299 plate appearances, and his .236/.361/.423 slash and .784 OPS would look good if he was a prolific base-stealing leadoff man, not a first baseman expected to be a major producer in the top half of the lineup. And lastly, after being ranked 90th in Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, Smoak currently ranks 309th overall in leagues, not a great place to be in mixed-leagues when it comes to the first-base position.

So, is Smoak worth keeping? Well, in order to do that, Smoak’s fantasy owners have to look at alternatives on the market, which is probably the only route to go now, since Smoak won’t fetch much of anything in a trade. Using my league as an example (we are a 12-team mixed), I will take a look at seven 1B-eligible candidates who may be worth replacing Smoak.

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  1. Matt Olson, Athletics (110 ranking; 80% owned)
  2. Derek Dietrich, Marlins (132 ranking; 46% owned)
  3. Ian Desmond, Rockies (167 ranking; 74% owned)
  4. Daniel Descalso, Diamondbacks (195 ranking; 30% owned)
  5. Yonder Alonso, Indians (200 ranking, 33% owned)
  6. Yuli Gurriel, Astros (245 ranking, 42% owned)
  7. Ryon Healy, Mariners (269 ranking, 43% owned)

As you can see, all seven rank better than Smoak, so one may be tempted to grab any of the seven as a replacement and think you’re better off. However, if you look deeper at the numbers, some are more skeptical options in comparison to Smoak.

First off, the last three (Alonso, Gurriel, and Healy), despite better rankings than Smoak currently, are probably not likely to finish the year better than Smoak. Smoak’s OPS (.784 OPS) is better than all three (Alonso .776; Gurriel .760; Healy .768), mostly due to Smoak’s much better plate discipline and approach. Furthermore, while Alonso and Healy have more home runs currently, Alonso is going through a similar off-year slump like Smoak (Alonso had 28 home runs last year), and Healy’s plate approach and lack of walks (.292 OBP) makes him a risky pickup, especially if the power tails off in the second half. As for Gurriel, he hits for high average (.306), but his concerning lack of power (4 home runs) doesn’t make him valuable as a starting first-baseman (especially considering that’s the only position he qualifies for).

Desmond is a risky move who has some flexibility (he can also play outfield). He hits homers (15 this year; thanks to Coors), drives in runs (42 RBI) and can get steals (he has 7 so far this year), but a .213 average and .718 OPS is hard to stomach. A lot of his value as a pickup stems on his projected ability in the second half, as many projections expect him to bounce back average-wise come July (he hit .274 last year). So if you are going to go the Desmond route, you might want to make sure your lineup has a lot of high average hitters to protect your weekly average.

Dietrich and Descalso are interesting pickups if you want utility guys who can play multiple positions. Dietrich qualifies as a 2B, 3B, and OF in addition to 1B, and he is hitting .302 for the year with a .850 OPS and 11 home runs. Dietrich has been especially on a tear in June, as he is hitting .389 with a 1.107 OPS and 6 homers in the past 30 days. Descalso provides the same position versatility as the Marlins’ Dietrich, though he isn’t as productive as the Marlins utility man (Descalso is hitting only .266 with a .865 OPS and 6 home runs). However, most owners will have a better shot at picking up Descalso than Dietrich in most leagues, so he is a nice consolation prize for owners who can’t nab Dietrich, but want his combination of flexibility and production.

The biggest debate I’m sure owners may have will be choosing between Smoak or Olson. Olson in a lot of ways is a younger version of Smoak. He doesn’t hit for high average (he’s only hitting .246 and he hit only .259 last year) and he strikes out a lot (27.1 percent K rate). That being said, he has maintained the power for the most part from last year (17 homers this year; .224 ISO), though it’s not as pronounced as it was during his first extended playing stint at the Major League level last season (24 homers; .392 ISO in 101 fewer appearances).

You can do a whole lot worse than Olson if you are dead set on replacing Smoak. At the very least, Olson has some keeper value, as he is only 24 years old; they both have the same kind of skill set (low average, relatively high walk and strikeout rates); and his power seems legitimate (which it has to be in a pitcher-friendly ballpark like the Oakland Coliseum), which means that he may be able to maintain this first half production in the second half. I think Smoak and Olson will have similar second halves, and that’s why I don’t think Olson for Smoak is a no-brainer. But, I know owners may be less patient or feel the pressure to pick up in leagues after slow starts. Hence, if you’re in a position where you have to make a move on Smoak, Olson has been more proven in 2018, and maybe a bit safer based on his better first half.

Overall, Dietrich, Descalso, and Olson would be preferable pickups to replace Smoak. However, if neither of those three is available, you’re probably better off keeping the Smoak monster, as Alonso, Gurriel, Desmond, and Healy aren’t likely to be much better than Smoak (hell, they may be worse) in the second half of the season.

It’s definitely a tough decision. Smoak is replaceable, sure. But be discerning, and don’t automatically drop him. The plate approach is there. Now he just needs some of those hits (and dingers) to fall.

Let’s get over Kelvin Herrera getting traded…okay?

As someone who now resides in and calls Kansas City home, the Kelvin Herrera trade to the Washington Nationals has dominated the MLB blog-sphere as well as the local Kansas City media scene. And understandably so: the Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball, and Herrera was one of the last and more memorable holdovers from the 2015 World Series Champion team. (I mean, who can forget the “HDH” combo of Herrera, Davis, and Holland holding down the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, respectively?) And though he has battled inconsistency as HDH slowly grew apart since the Championship run, Herrera has been, for the most part, a bright spot, especially for a pitching staff that has been so god-awfully putrid (they rank last in MLB in ERA).

But let’s be honest here: the Royals needed to trade Herrera, and the deal was about as good as they probably could have gotten for him, even if it was way before the trade deadline (which is July 31st for those who don’t know this shit…like 90 percent of Americans until the day of…it’s kind of like voting in that way). Considering Herrera is going to be free agent, and the Royals’ history of trade-able players getting hurt before the deadline (cough…Luke Hochevar…cough), the Royals at least got something in return for Herrera to help them build a depleted farm system (they rank last by most major publications when it comes to Minor League systems).

Now, I know some people argue that the Royals got too little for Herrera. Yes, they got three players, but neither of the players in the deal come highly heralded, many arguing that they are journeyman players at best. That being said, they aren’t total scrubs by any measure as Kelvin Gutierrez and Blake Perkins were ranked in the Top 10 of the Nationals system according to Fangraphs going into this year, and Yohanse Morel is only 17 years old. It’s not a “Zach Greinke” package, sure, but then again Herrera isn’t a starting pitcher like Greinke, who had probably 10 times the value Herrera did when the former Royals ace was on the market. To think that a spotty closer will generate as much in return as a former Cy Young winner is absolutely preposterous.

And let’s judge how much impact Herrera will have on the Nationals. First off, Herrera most likely will go back to setup status, as the Nationals would be crazy to demote current closer Sean Doolittle, who has had a tremendous year. Doolittle not only has more saves than the former Royals closer (18 to 14), but the lefty dwarfs Herrera in K/9 (12.62 to 7.71), FIP (1.62 to 2.62), K/BB (14.33 to 11.00) and swinging strike percentage (19.1 to 14.4 percent). Yes, Herrera makes the Nationals bullpen much stronger. Yes, Herrera becomes a nice little stopgap should Doolittle run into trouble against a string of right-handed hitters. But Herrera isn’t taking Doolittle job’s anytime soon, and three prospects for a half-season of an over-qualified setup guy (but probably under-qualified closer) is more than good enough for this Royals team. If anybody should be pissed at all from this trade, it’s fantasy owners who have Herrera in leagues that don’t count holds as a scoring category (luckily, my leagues does…phew).

Rarely are their “winners” and “losers” realistically in a trade. Teams trade because they have a surplus of something, and they have a deficit in another area. The Nationals’ bullpen has been shaky outside of Doolittle and they are in a tight race with the Phillies and Braves in the NL East Division. The Royals are in last place in the AL Central, have no shot of being competitive this year, and need to rebuild a farm system that has either graduated most of their top prospects in the past or seen them fizzle out into oblivion (here’s looking at you, Kyle Zimmerman and Bubba Starling). Both the Nationals and Royals got exactly what they want.

So stop filling up the 810 phone lines Royals fans. Yes, I get it. Losing Herrera makes you nostalgic for once better days. But the Royals got decent prospects with decent upside and let a likable player go and be in a better situation for the remainder of the year until he becomes a free agent.

This trade simply was the “MLB Business Life” in a nutshell. Nothing shady or crazy about it, especially in this case. So let’s get over it, Kansas City, okay?

Who Should I Give a Crap About on this Royals Team?

At 22–49, the Kansas City Royals have the second-worst record in all of baseball (only the Orioles are worse at 20–50; at least they have the excuse that they play in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox). For Royals fans who followed this team pre-2013, it seems like it’s back to half-empty stadiums, bad jokes, and constant L’s both at Kauffman and away. As someone who recently moved to Kansas City, and got caught up in the “Royals Fever” post 2013, it’s interesting to see the difference between who the true baseball fans are, and the ones who just jumped on the bandwagon because those teams during that three to four-year stretch were competitive (already those fans in the latter category are only talking about how good Patrick Mahomes is looking in training camp).

As someone who enjoys baseball, plays fantasy baseball, and has a soft spot for the Royals as my favorite KC-based sports team (sorry Chiefs, can’t do your semi-racist mascots or chants), I figured it would be good to write a post about which Royals players you should pay attention to on this Royals team if you are an avid player of fantasy baseball or if you still plan on going to Royals games this summer (i.e. get drunk in the parking lot before remembering four innings of baseball and then blacking out and getting a 50 dollar Uber ride home). Some of them will be obvious (especially to the “three-year fans”), and some will be a little under-the-radar, but hopefully this analysis will help Royals as well as fantasy baseball fans get a little excited over what already has been a lost season (and perhaps one of many to come) here in Kansas City.

Merrifield has been the Royals’ best offensive player (and new “hunk” for female Royals fans).

Whit Merrifield, 1B, 2B, OF; 2018 stats: .294 average, .795 OPS, 4 home runs, 23 RBI, 15 SB, 31 runs scored; 88% owned in Yahoo and ranked 126th.

The former minor-league journeyman was on the Crash Davis career track until he broke out after a call up in 2016, posting a .283/.323/.390 slash with two home runs, 29 RBI, and 8 stolen bases in 81 games as a super utility guy. Since 2016, while many of the other Royals batters have fluttered with inconsistency, Merrifield has been a pillar of steady production, as in 2017 he posted a .288/.324/.460 slash with 19 home runs, 80 runs scored, 78 RBI, and 34 stolen bases in double the amount of plate appearances (630 compared to 330 in 2016). And if that isn’t enough, Merrifield has been even better in 2018. Merrifield’s batting average is higher (.294) and he leads the team in stolen bases (15), on-base percentage (.371) and WAR (2.1). One could argue that not only has he usurped the role of most “beloved by female Royals fans 34 and under” (once held by the now departed Eric Hosmer; Alex Gordon still holds the 35 and over crowd), but he has also become the team’s most valuable offensive player during this somewhat dismal season.

Unless you’re in a really shallow league, it’s hard to imagine Merrifield being available, but he’s worth exploring for in trades simply because of his great slash value, and excellent stolen base production. He’s probably not going to duplicate the power numbers he displayed from a year ago (ZiPS projects him for seven more homers over the remainder of the year; good for 11 total), and his age makes him a shaky candidate as a keeper for next season (he’s 29 years old). That being said, Merrifield is not only a fun player to watch, but a productive one who can fill three positions on your roster, making him a perfect utility guy you can squeeze in if a starting player is a late-scratch or gets injured and hasn’t made it to the DL just yet.

Keep mashing Whit. The young ladies of KC as well as fantasy baseball owners are rooting for you.

Despite Mondesi’ struggles at the plate, he has been good on the basepaths over his career.

Adalberto Mondesi, 2B; 2018 stats (Omaha): .250 average, .786 OPS, 5 home runs, 21 RBI, 10 SB, 19 runs scored; 1% owned in Yahoo and ranked 1044.

I was going to write initially on Jorge Soler, who has been one of the Royals most productive hitters this season(he leads the team with a weight runs created plus of 125) and was finally looking like the top prospect he was once hailed to be when he was in the Cubs system. But then Soler broke his damn foot, and even though he’s on the 10-Day DL, it’s plausible that he may be out for an extended period of time, and won’t be back until the end of the year at best.

So instead, I’m writing on one of Royals’ fans most polarizing young prospects: Adalberto Mondesi.

Mondesi came to the Royals system with a lot of expectations. Not only is he the son of Raul Mondesi, a baseball mainstay in the 90’s, but he also signed a $2 million bonus in 2011 as a 16-year-old, riding high on the early days of the “I’m evaluating this player solely on this cool, 2 minute YouTube mixtape I found” movement within fantasy baseball circles (it is also big in college basketball scouting circles as well). However, despite the hype, Mondesi’s tenure so far at the big-league level has been disappointing.

After starting the year in Double-A, and getting knocked for a 50-game suspension due to PEDs (which turned out to be cold medicine, apparently; thank God the school I work at doesn’t drug test for PEDs; I’d be our school’s Barry Bonds), Mondesi got an extended look in 2016. However, the youngster failed to produce results, as he hit .185 and put up an OPS of .512 in a 149 plate appearances, and provided little else beyond stolen base prowess (he stole 9 bases in 10 attempts). In 2017, he earned 60 plate appearances at the big-league level, and continued to do little with it, posting as slash of .170/.214/.245 with the Royals before spending most of the year back in Omaha.

Now, Mondesi gets his third extended chance at the big-league level, and already a lot of Royals fans are calling him a bust. For starters, I would tell Royals fans to cool their jets for a couple of reasons: first, he’s only 22-years old, which is still a baby in Major League years (you really can’t give up on anyone until age 26, which is the cut off between “prospect” and “veteran” in scouting circles). And second, he’s got one plus-skill: stealing bases. This year, he is 10 for 10 on stolen base attempts in Omaha and he stole 21 out of 24 bases a year ago in Omaha. Mondesi desperately provides speed on the basepaths this team needs outside of Merrifield, and it’s plausible to see him as a 25–40 SB per year guy in the near future.

However, what will make Mondesi worth keeping? Whether or not he can solve his massive strikeout issues at the big league level. In 2016, he struck out in 32.2 percent of his plate appearances. Last year, he struck out 36.7 percent of the time. And unfortunately, he doesn’t walk enough to justify such high numbers (his career BB/K ratio is 0.13; 0.50 is considered average). With his speed, Mondesi needs to take a page out of the Lou Brown “Put the Ball on the Damn Ground!” playbook like Willy “Mays” Hayes before him in Cleveland.

The Adalberto Mondesi of the 80’s

Let’s see if Mondesi can do that in his call up this summer. If he can replicate Wesley Snipes’ beloved fictional outfielder, he may be an interesting keeper in deep leagues for next year.

It’s been a lousy June, but Junis has been the Royals’ best starting pitcher this year.

Jakob Junis, SP; 2018 stats: 4.43 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 5 wins, 79 strikeouts; 43 percent owned in Yahoo and ranked 501st.

I am big believer in “team.” And yet, if you really had to point one reason why the Royals are on the cusp of being the worst team in baseball, it has to be due to the crappy pitching. Yes, the Royals pitching is bad, and REALLY BAD. Not only do they have the worst ERA in baseball (5.39), but they also have the worst FIP (Field Independent Pitching; 4.83) and WAR (0.7). (They have the second worst xFIP, expected field independent pitching, trailing only the White Sox, which goes to show how lousy the Central is.) By all metrics, both standard and advanced, this Royals pitching staff has been awful and a far cry from their playoff days, where they rode great pitching and base running to back to back World Series appearances (and an eventual championship).

The Royals starting staff has been a motley crew of mediocrity this year in more ways than one: Danny Duffy has proved that he not only is unable to handle being the team’s ace, but that he can’t even be a good pitcher without the mentoring of James Shields. Additionally, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel have been disappointing free agent pickups who have proved to baseball fans and analysts that they are overpaid and perhaps over-the-hill to boot. It’s almost as if this Royals’ rotation has been cursed since Yordano Ventura’s unfortunate passing.

However, the one pitcher on this starting staff worth following may be the 25-year-old Jakob Junis, a №4 starter who leads the team in wins with 5 (yes I know, wins is a shitty stat, but hey, he’s leading) as well as strikeouts (79). With a quick approach, and breaking-ball heavy repertoire (he throws his slider over 40 percent of the time in comparison to his fastball, which he only throws 31.2 percent of the time), Junis has been a decent surprise for a staff that has struggled the past couple of seasons.

Unfortunately, Junis has cooled in June after a strong start, as he is 0–3 in June and posted 10.13 ERA in his last two starts. This mostly is due to his propensity to give up the long-ball, as his HR/9 innings rate is the highest out of any Royals starter this year (1.90 per 9). His repertoire is probably the culprit, as batters have begun to sit on his slider, and his fastball isn’t powerful enough (it averages a little over 91 MPH) to make them pay for such a strategy. Junis has had trouble getting past the 5th and 6th innings once teams have already seen him once or twice at the plate. Either Junis has to get more creative with his pitches to be more effective, or perhaps Yost has to settle on him being a 5 inning guy (6 at best), and rely heavily on the pen the rest of the way.

However, Junis is an interesting pickup because he gets guys to swing out of the zone (he gets batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone 32.3 percent of the time which is above average), and he has good control (his 3.95 K/BB walk ratio is better than other major starters such as Duffy, Hammel and Kennedy) with the potential for good command (as we saw earlier in the year). Junis isn’t going to set the world on fire, and he’s a streaky pitcher, as we have seen already during the first half of this season. That being said, Junis has the skill set to give fantasy teams solid innings, a good number of K’s, and he won’t kill your WHIP either (because he doesn’t walk too many batters).

Let’s hope he can turn it around, and have a July that’s a lot closer to what he did in April and May. At 25-years-old, he could give Royals a glimmer of hope for starting pitching in the future, and for fantasy team owners, he could be a surprise contributor to a teams starting pitching staff in the second half.


Originally published at medium.com on June 18, 2018.